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After netting nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has kicked off the season with incredible momentum.

Although this isn't his best start to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his initial seven matches in the 2022-23 season and ten in the previous campaign - it nevertheless places him with a three-goal lead in the early running for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that none of his nine goals have been spot-kicks makes it even more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Naturally, physical problems might significantly impact in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so soon in the campaign.

To begin with, the quantity of strikes he has thus far netted - and, equally significant, the number and quality of opportunities he's receiving.

And second, the slow start his regular challengers for the honor have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) represents how many goals a Premier League player has historically scored from the total and standard of chances he has had.

This isn't a number randomly picked by statistical experts, but by historical Premier League data.

And if we look at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this campaign from normal play, the Norway forward is getting so many more quality chances to convert than anyone else.

In fact, even if Haaland were no better at finishing chances than any other player in the division, he would nevertheless have converted over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Scoring Situation Assessment

That is demonstrated by analyzing the number and quality of opportunities that players have had in the top flight so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this campaign, 12 more than every other footballer.

This is actually not that remarkable for him - he had previously registered more non-spot-kick efforts at this juncture in the most recent two terms (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in 2024-25).

However, what's remarkable even by his standards is the quality of chances he has had this campaign. His shots have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 on average.

This statistic indicates is that footballers have traditionally scored the efforts he's registered at a rate of 27%.

Regarding attackers registering at ten or more efforts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to convert per attempt - because of a few simple finishes against West Ham United and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of an average of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG rating per effort he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

To summarize, the opportunities he has had in 2025-26 have been notably easier to find the net from in a reorganised City team than those at the opening of last term.

Historical Comparison

Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. Following seven matches last campaign he had scored 10 goals - four additional compared to anyone else and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Reds attacker who won the Golden Boot with 29 goals, seven more than the Manchester City striker.

This season, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this juncture last term.

In fact this has been the quietest start to a Premier League term the Pharaohs star has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It's not merely Salah who has opened quietly either. If we look at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the additional ten attackers combined so far.

Whether due to injuries - several key attackers - extended transfer dramas in Alexander Isak's case or merely because their teams have struggled (several proven attackers), Haaland's potential challengers in the race for the Golden Boot have underperformed so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

While Haaland looks the distinct favorite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European top scorer prize that is given to the player with the most goals in Europe's top-five leagues?

That contest is far more competitive at this early stage because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in superb fashion, with 11 and nine goals each.

The fact Haaland has scored so many times and has the top chance quality metric of the three without having taken any penalties renders him the frontrunner.

However, because Kane and Mbappe are some of the most excellent converters in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the battle continues intensely.