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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.